I got several things wrong about Russia-Ukraine, but then...

I expect there will be many attempts to reflect on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s war against Ukraine. It’s an unglamorous task — coming up with conclusions and predictions. The truth is that it’s tough to know the exact situation and the future of the war is as predictable as ever.

On the one hand, the broad trends seem clear. Ukraine was able to show incredible resistance. At the beginning of the invasion, Russia taking Kyiv in XYZ days was a genuine possibility. There was no help from the West then. Ukraine fought back. It’s also clear that the West showed unity in supporting Ukraine. It’s all interconnected — if Ukraine fell quickly, there would’ve been less support. Now, this support continues to grow.

But there is nothing to rejoice about. Ukraine is in ruin, and Russia occupies large parts of its land. Everyone’s losing.

I got a couple of things wrong. Expectedly, I overreacted.

First, Russia avoided an economic meltdown. The sanctions were extensive, as was the exodus of foreign companies. But there was no knockout. My father runs a business in Moscow. He says the economic impact is being felt. For one thing, fewer — literally fewer — people are around. Many left, either escaping the risk of mobilization or emigrating more generally. And the ones who stayed have less to spend. However, it’s nothing dramatic, nothing that modern Russia hadn’t seen before, and certainly nothing dramatic relative to how it looked when the…